Hello Recession Deniers, It’s Already Time to Think About Negative Q3 GDP – Mish Talk

Newest estimate: 1.3 % – August 1, 2022

Financial information for the third quarter is just a few days underway. However please be aware that the brand new GDP mannequin of the Atlanta Federal Reserve is already going within the fallacious path.

The GDP mannequin now estimate for actual GDP progress (seasonally adjusted annual charge) within the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 % on August 1, down from 2.1 % on July 29. Within the US Census Bureau’s building spending report, projections for third-quarter actual PCE progress and actual GDP progress fell from 2.5 % and -1.4 %, respectively, to 1.5 % and -2.1 %, respectively.